The exit polls has been analyzed and the evidence is clear. Evangelicals may have tipped it in for Bush in 2004, but Obama made significant gains among them in 2008. Now being called “Obamagelicals,” they are a sign that the Religious Right is eroding and a more moderate Christian voting block is emerging–one that neither party has in its pocket.The Obama campaign made a strong push to appeal to religious voters, and not just Christians. Obama made gains among Jews as well when compared to Kerry in 2004. From The New York Times:

Mr. Obama doubled his support among young white evangelicals (those ages 18 to 29) compared with Mr. Kerry. The increase was almost the same for white evangelicals ages 30 to 44. “There is definitely a generational division,” said David P. Gushee, professor of Christian ethics at Mercer University…. “Young evangelicals,” Dr. Gushee said, are “attracted to a broader agenda” beyond abortion and homosexuality, that includes the environment, poverty, human rights and torture.

Among evangelicals 45 and older, Obama didn’t do as well. They still voted Republican in large numbers. This explains why overall Obama only showed a 3 percent gain among evangelicals compared to Kerry in 2004. But the demographics don’t bode well for conservative Christians groups. They haven’t managed to convince younger evangelicals that abortion and homosexuality are the determinative political issues.Belief.net did an intensive study of evangelical voters and uncovered some really interesting trends between those who voted for Obama and those supporting McCain. On the abortion issue they concluded:

Almost all McCain and Obama evangelicals believe that reducing the number of abortions is important. But they different dramatically on the right way to achieve that goal. 61% of McCain evangelicals believed that the best approach is through legal restrictions while only 8% of Obamagelicals believed that. Instead, 86.3% of Obama’s supporters said the best way is “by preventing unintended pregnancy (through education and birth control), or providing financial assistance to pregnant mothers.”

Here we see Christians holding the save value–life. But they differ in how best to apply it. The two groups of evangelicals also prioritized their values differently. Obamagelicals listed the economy, the Iraq war, reducing poverty, character, and the environment among their top five priorities. Evangelicals for McCain listed abortion, character, cleaning up government, fighting Islamic radicalism, and gay marriage. Read the entire report at Steven Waldman’s blog.What does all of this mean? I’ll venture two conclusions. First, it means the influence of the Religious Right and conservative Christian groups like Focus on the Family may be fading–particularly among younger evangelicals. If they hope to capture these voters they’re going to have to expand the list of values they define as “Christian” beyond sexual and reproductive ethics.Second, Barack Obama and the Democrats have an opportunity but it’s one that could be easily blown. They’ve successfully used Christian rhetoric to draw younger evangelicals, but unlike their Boomer parents they’re not going to remain faithful to the party based on rhetoric alone. If the Democrats don’t deliver on the values most important to these believers (social justice, international poverty, and even reducing abortions) they risk losing the religious vote for another generation. They may not return to the GOP, but they could easily retreat from politics as many evangelicals did in the pre-Rove vs. Wade years of the twentieth century.